A little Ohio Research

If you look at the listing of Ohio provisional ballots by county http://election.sos.state.oh.us/ProvBallots.htm -- as of 10:35am, there are a total of 135,149 listed with 10 counties showing no report. If you look at the 2000 census figures by county for Ohio, those counties account for 1,597,190 of the total state population of 11,353,140. If you project provisional ballots for those counties at the same ratio as the other counties, you would come up with an estimate of 22,126 additional provisional ballots for a total of 157,275.

Assuming the above figures are accurate and that 90% of the provision ballots are valid and can be counted, for Kerry to prevail, he would have to capture 97.8% of the provisional ballots.

It looks to me like Kerry should do the honorable thing and concede but this will be his one and only shot at the brass ring so he may not go easily.